By Emily Maran
Abstract
In 1948, the United States was the first country to recognize Israel as an independent state, sparking the beginning of one of the most essential alliances in US history. Israel is the largest cumulative recipient of US foreign aid since World War II, receiving about $300 billion as of 2023 in economic and military assistance (Masters and Merrow 2024). While the United State’s loyalty to Israel has remained persistent for almost a century, Israel’s regional environment has become increasingly unstable, and the country’s democracy is on the decline (Hammad 2023). The continuous transfer of funds to Israel has significantly altered the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and has critical social, economic, and security repercussions in the area and on a global scale (Masters and Merrow 2024). What motivates the United States to send so much money to Israel? What does the United States gain, and why does it continue to provide monetary support to a country that has one of the most developed economies and militaries in the entire world? This research observed the Israel-Hamas war to examine the determinants of national interests (US geopolitical interests and desire to maintain peace in the Middle East), domestic politics (public opinion in the United States, and the upcoming 2024 Election), and the promotion of human rights (the utilization or restriction of aid as a means to protect individuals), and how they have shaped US provision of aid to Israel.
Literature Review: The Interest and Influence Paradigm
Previous research on the determinants of US foreign aid to Israel is centered on two paradigms, the self-interest or national-interest framework and the influence, or domestic politics, framework.
National Interests
- The $36 Billion Bargain: Strategy and Politics in U.S. Assistance to Israel
- Scholar Organski argues that large-scale US support for Israel is based on national security requirements
- Adopted by President Nixon in the 1970s
- Response to Soviet influence and to maintain US access to oil
- Domestic politics play no role
Domestic politics
- The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy
- Professors Mearsheimer and Walt argue that US policies, specifically regarding military aid to Israel, aligns closely with Israeli interest due to the lobby’s influence
- Sparked significant debate and criticism
As shown in the graph below from the Council of Foreign Relations, major US aid to Israel occurred after:
- The 1967 War: $9.3 million to $30.8 million
- The 1973 War: $1.6 billion to $12.4 billion
- 1978 Camp David Accords and the Camp David Accords: $3.8 billion $14 billion
In all of these instances, the United States was attempting to reduce Soviet influence, ensure an uninterrupted flow of oil, and increase US prestige as a negotiating force (Newbold, 5-5). Even in the case where the United States was attempting to foster peace between Israel and Palestine, and protect human rights, such as during the Camp David Accords, support for Israel has been principally backed by the interest paradigm (U.S. Mission Israel 2018).
Case Study: US Aid to Israel from October 7th 2023 to May 8th 2024
National Interests Prevail
The evolving debate in the US legislature, alongside growing public division, has raised important questions about the future direction of US policy towards Israel and its implications for international diplomacy, human rights, and America’s reputation. While the US has historically justified its support for Israel on the basis of shared democratic values and strategic interests in the region, critics assert that continued military support for Israel is only exacerbating regional instability and undermines true prospects for peaceful Israeli-Palestinian negotiations (Kmeil 2024). The Israel-Hamas war has proved that there is a change in American society with increased activism on foreign policy issues and much at stake with the November 2024 Elections on the horizon. However, does this societal change represent a policy change?
From October 7th, 2023, until May 2024, the United States made over one hundred military aid transfers to Israel, and President Joe Biden only paused US aid to Israel once due to civilian causalities (Masters and Merrow 2023). It is important to uncover what influenced the United States to send aid to Israel and what factors motivated Biden to authorize and halt aid in light of human rights violations. The timeline at the very bottom of this page highlights significant transfers of US military assistance to Israel and what motivated their provision. Events with a black background examine the determinant of national interests; blue shows human rights, and red is other.
Timeline key takeaways:
★US military aid to Israel has been based on US desire to maintain strategic interests in the Middle East and avoid a larger regional war
- Examples
- Biden’s two bypasses of congressional approval for aid to Israel
- Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations
- 2024 National Security Act
★US provision of aid has not been backed by the promotion of human rights
- Examples
- Rejection of Sander’s proposal
- Violation of the Leahy Law
- Halt in aid due to concerns over human catastrophes in Rafah
- Continuation of aid in light of human rights abuses
Public Opinion and the 2024 Election
Americans are not voting on foreign policy
While aid to Israel during the Israel-Hamas War has been motivated by national interests, there has been a societal and domestic political shift with increased activism in US-Israeli policy, especially with the 2024 Election on the horizon. It is difficult to research the determinant of domestic politics on the provision of US aid during the current conflict as Biden made no direct calls between aid provision and domestic issues. Nevertheless, with an upcoming election, many analysts and news outlets have examined whether Biden’s involvement in the Israel-Palestine conflict will affect his victory in November (Axelrod and Abdul-Hakim 2024).
(Jones 2024)
(Silver et al. 2024)
(Silver et al. 2024)
Note: Numbers expressed as a percentage (Wingerter 2024).
Despite this divide an NBC News poll found that only 7% of voters would cast their ballot in favor or against a candidate because of their stance on the war (NBC News Survey, 13). Additionally, as Enten from CNN wrote,
“Of all the problems Biden has to deal with as he seeks re-election, the war in the Middle East and the related divisions at home are not even close to being the top issue that will decide the 2024 election.”
Key takeaways:
★Biden is not losing votes due to his actions in supporting Israel
- Thus, public opinion has not affected his aid strategy
★The conflict in the Middle East is not central to voters in the 2024 Election
★ Americans do not vote on foreign policy issues, and 2024 is not an anomaly
- This, topped with historical trends, has not altered the determinants of aid to Israel from a domestic politics standpoint
(Data for Progress 2024)
Policy Recommendations: Conditioning Aid to Israel
While America’s commitments to Israel are long-term, mutually beneficial, and incorporated in US law, the historical precedent and use of military aid to preserve national interests should not allow the Israeli government to violate the law. The United States wields enormous power over Israel and could use its leverage to establish a ceasefire, create peace negotiations, or even limit the transfer of weapons to Israel in order to save Palestinian lives. When asked if President Biden could end the Israel-Hamas war with one phone call, Shibley Telhami, a Professor for peace and development at the University of Maryland, responded, “…yes, the president of the United States can make a call, and in pretty short order, I think the Israelis would follow through if, in fact, he conditions aid to Israel” (Martinez). Conditional aid would ensure that US weapons are being used responsibly and in accordance with international laws. If Biden and the United States truly want to foster and maintain peace in the Middle East, the states must restructure its aid packages to Israel to make peace a possible result of its support. Bilal Saab from Chatham House leaves readers with this:
“The path to a stronger US–Israel relationship is through conditioning US military assistance to Israel, exercising effective oversight over that assistance, and enforcing US laws, just like Washington does with any other ally or partner around the world. It is the moral and strategic thing to do” (Bilal 2024).
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